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Statistical Analysis of the Risk Factors Associated with Visceral Leishmaniasis Patients at Marsabit County Referral Hospital

Received: 19 June 2023     Accepted: 6 July 2023     Published: 17 July 2023
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Abstract

Visceral Leishmaniasis also known as Kala-azar, is a tropical infectious disease caused by female sandflies. It affects the internal organs, usually the spleen, liver and bone marrow. Globally, an estimated 700 000 to 1 million new cases of visceral leishmaniasis occur annually. In Kenya, 4000 cases occur while 5 million people are at risk of infection. The purpose of the study was to evaluate risk factors for visceral Leishmaniasis. The study adopted a retrospective cohort design. The study used secondary data from 2890 visceral leishmaniasis patients enrolled at Marsabit County referral hospital from September 2015 to September 2019. Cox proportional hazard model was used to establish the relationship between the survival time of visceral leishmaniasis patients and predictor variables. Data analysis was carried out using R statistical software. The risk factors which were significant predictors for survival time of visceral Leishmaniasis patients included; household design (cracked walls and thatched roof) [β =.435, p=.0001], living near anthills [β =.320, p=.0012], using bed nets [β= -.151, p=.0080], contact with infected dogs [β =.200, p=.0006], forest surroundings [β=.151, p=.0340] and sleeping outside at night [β =.169, p=.0260]. In conclusion, there was an increased case of visceral Leishmaniasis among patients who are not using bed nets, those living in cracked mud walls, those living near the forest, residing near ant hills, sleeping outside, and those in contact with infected dogs. The study recommended adopting appropriate practices such as avoiding contact with infected dogs, using bed nets at night, clearing forests surrounding homesteads, avoiding sleeping in the open at night, and reducing house proximity to ant hills and termite mounds to reduce the transmission from Visceral Leishmaniasis.

Published in American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics (Volume 12, Issue 4)
DOI 10.11648/j.ajtas.20231204.13
Page(s) 82-86
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Risk Factors, Survival Probabilities, Visceral Leishmaniasis

References
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[2] El Hajj, R., el Hajj, H., & Khalifeh, I. (2018). Fatal visceral Leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania infantum, Lebanon. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 24 (5), 906–907. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2405.180019
[3] Kanyina, E. W. (2020). Characterization of visceral leishmaniasis outbreak, Marsabit County, Kenya, 2014. BMC Public Health, 20 (1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-08532-9
[4] Leishmaniasis Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine. (n.d.). www.welltravelledclinics.co.uk
[5] Margonari, C., Menezes, J. A., Mayr De Lima Carvalho, G., Miranda, J. B., Furtado De Sousa, F., Rêgo, F. D., Campos, A. M., Monteiro, C. C., Madureira, A. P., & Andrade Filho, J. D. (2020). Level of Knowledge and Risk Factors for Visceral Leishmaniasis in a Mining Area of Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/6301310
[6] Mengesha, B., Endris, M., Takele, Y., Mekonnen, K., Tadesse, T., Feleke, A., & Diro, E. (2014). Prevalence of malnutrition and associated risk factors among adult visceral leishmaniasis patients in Northwest Ethiopia: A cross-sectional study. BMC Research Notes, 7 (1), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1186/1756-0500-7-75
[7] Moncaz, A., Faiman, R., Kirstein, O., & Warburg, A. (2012). Breeding sites of Phlebotomus sergenti, the sand fly vector of cutaneous Leishmaniasis in the Judean desert. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 6 (7), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001725
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[9] Ngere, I., Boru, W. G., Isack, A., Muiruri, J., Obonyo, M., Matendechero, S., & Gura, Z. (2020). Burden and risk factors of cutaneous Leishmaniasis in a peri-urban settlement in Kenya, 2016. PLoS ONE, 15 (1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227697
[10] Odoch, W. D., & Olobo, J. O. (2013). Prevalence of kala-azar infection in Pokot county, Amudat district, Northeastern Uganda. Open Journal of Epidemiology, 03 (04), 203–208. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojepi.2013.34029
[11] Thompson, R. A., De Oliveira Lima, J. W., Maguire, J. H., Braud, D. H., & Scholl, D. T. (2002). Climatic and demographic determinants of American visceral Leishmaniasis in northeastern Brazil using remote sensing technology for environmental categorization of rain and region influences on Leishmaniasis. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 67 (6), 648–655. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2002.67.648
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    Elias Elema Guyo, Tum Isaac Kipkosgei, Mathew Kosgei. (2023). Statistical Analysis of the Risk Factors Associated with Visceral Leishmaniasis Patients at Marsabit County Referral Hospital. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 12(4), 82-86. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20231204.13

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    ACS Style

    Elias Elema Guyo; Tum Isaac Kipkosgei; Mathew Kosgei. Statistical Analysis of the Risk Factors Associated with Visceral Leishmaniasis Patients at Marsabit County Referral Hospital. Am. J. Theor. Appl. Stat. 2023, 12(4), 82-86. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20231204.13

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    AMA Style

    Elias Elema Guyo, Tum Isaac Kipkosgei, Mathew Kosgei. Statistical Analysis of the Risk Factors Associated with Visceral Leishmaniasis Patients at Marsabit County Referral Hospital. Am J Theor Appl Stat. 2023;12(4):82-86. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20231204.13

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ajtas.20231204.13,
      author = {Elias Elema Guyo and Tum Isaac Kipkosgei and Mathew Kosgei},
      title = {Statistical Analysis of the Risk Factors Associated with Visceral Leishmaniasis Patients at Marsabit County Referral Hospital},
      journal = {American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics},
      volume = {12},
      number = {4},
      pages = {82-86},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ajtas.20231204.13},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20231204.13},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtas.20231204.13},
      abstract = {Visceral Leishmaniasis also known as Kala-azar, is a tropical infectious disease caused by female sandflies. It affects the internal organs, usually the spleen, liver and bone marrow. Globally, an estimated 700 000 to 1 million new cases of visceral leishmaniasis occur annually. In Kenya, 4000 cases occur while 5 million people are at risk of infection. The purpose of the study was to evaluate risk factors for visceral Leishmaniasis. The study adopted a retrospective cohort design. The study used secondary data from 2890 visceral leishmaniasis patients enrolled at Marsabit County referral hospital from September 2015 to September 2019. Cox proportional hazard model was used to establish the relationship between the survival time of visceral leishmaniasis patients and predictor variables. Data analysis was carried out using R statistical software. The risk factors which were significant predictors for survival time of visceral Leishmaniasis patients included; household design (cracked walls and thatched roof) [β =.435, p=.0001], living near anthills [β =.320, p=.0012], using bed nets [β= -.151, p=.0080], contact with infected dogs [β =.200, p=.0006], forest surroundings [β=.151, p=.0340] and sleeping outside at night [β =.169, p=.0260]. In conclusion, there was an increased case of visceral Leishmaniasis among patients who are not using bed nets, those living in cracked mud walls, those living near the forest, residing near ant hills, sleeping outside, and those in contact with infected dogs. The study recommended adopting appropriate practices such as avoiding contact with infected dogs, using bed nets at night, clearing forests surrounding homesteads, avoiding sleeping in the open at night, and reducing house proximity to ant hills and termite mounds to reduce the transmission from Visceral Leishmaniasis.},
     year = {2023}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Statistical Analysis of the Risk Factors Associated with Visceral Leishmaniasis Patients at Marsabit County Referral Hospital
    AU  - Elias Elema Guyo
    AU  - Tum Isaac Kipkosgei
    AU  - Mathew Kosgei
    Y1  - 2023/07/17
    PY  - 2023
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20231204.13
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ajtas.20231204.13
    T2  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
    JF  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
    JO  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
    SP  - 82
    EP  - 86
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2326-9006
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20231204.13
    AB  - Visceral Leishmaniasis also known as Kala-azar, is a tropical infectious disease caused by female sandflies. It affects the internal organs, usually the spleen, liver and bone marrow. Globally, an estimated 700 000 to 1 million new cases of visceral leishmaniasis occur annually. In Kenya, 4000 cases occur while 5 million people are at risk of infection. The purpose of the study was to evaluate risk factors for visceral Leishmaniasis. The study adopted a retrospective cohort design. The study used secondary data from 2890 visceral leishmaniasis patients enrolled at Marsabit County referral hospital from September 2015 to September 2019. Cox proportional hazard model was used to establish the relationship between the survival time of visceral leishmaniasis patients and predictor variables. Data analysis was carried out using R statistical software. The risk factors which were significant predictors for survival time of visceral Leishmaniasis patients included; household design (cracked walls and thatched roof) [β =.435, p=.0001], living near anthills [β =.320, p=.0012], using bed nets [β= -.151, p=.0080], contact with infected dogs [β =.200, p=.0006], forest surroundings [β=.151, p=.0340] and sleeping outside at night [β =.169, p=.0260]. In conclusion, there was an increased case of visceral Leishmaniasis among patients who are not using bed nets, those living in cracked mud walls, those living near the forest, residing near ant hills, sleeping outside, and those in contact with infected dogs. The study recommended adopting appropriate practices such as avoiding contact with infected dogs, using bed nets at night, clearing forests surrounding homesteads, avoiding sleeping in the open at night, and reducing house proximity to ant hills and termite mounds to reduce the transmission from Visceral Leishmaniasis.
    VL  - 12
    IS  - 4
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Department of Mathematics, Physics and Computing, Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya

  • Department of Mathematics, Physics and Computing, Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya

  • Department of Mathematics, Physics and Computing, Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya

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